4 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,716 sqft ·
Built 2004
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 38 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,417/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,180
Tax + insurance
−$145
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$298
Net cashflow
$-205/mo
Annual
$-2,466/yr
Cap rate
5.20%
Cash-on-cash
-3.91%
DSCR
0.83
1% rule
0.63%
Cash to close
$63,000
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $225k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-205 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (16.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (37.0% below list).
It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $142k (37.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#41 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Calhoun County (rural): math 19% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #46 of 129 in AL (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Alexandria Elementary School (math 33% / reading 61%, grade D-, #142 of 627 statewide, top 25%, 720 students, 61% FRL); Alexandria High School (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #142 of 305 statewide, top 51%, 513 students, 58% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 88 active listings in the ZIP; 135 units permitted in Calhoun County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Calhoun County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.6% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-V8EWE2EYZAJ8PY
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29