722 Pawnee Ave

Flagler, CO 80815

$69,900C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 938 sqft · Built 1983 · Manufactured · Active · 337 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $673/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$141
• Net cashflow: $49/mo
• Annual: $583/yr
• Cap rate: 7.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.98%
• DSCR: 1.13
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $19,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $49 ($583/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $67k (3.7% below list).
• It's been on market 337 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($483 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (9.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#323 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Arriba-Flagler Consolidated School District No. 20 (rural): math 20% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #125 of 176 in CO (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Kit Carson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kit Carson County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 8 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (9.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 337 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.