1531 Chestnut Grove Rd

Madison Heights, VA 24572

$159,999C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,695 sqft · Built 1999 · Manufactured · Active · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,559/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $278/mo
• Annual: $3,338/yr
• Cap rate: 8.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.45%
• DSCR: 1.33
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $44,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $278 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (2.6% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $156k (2.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#166 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Appomattox County Public School District (rural): math 53% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #56 of 131 in VA (top 43%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Appomattox Elementary (math 50% / reading 65%, grade C+, #588 of 1,108 statewide, top 54%, 531 students, 74% FRL); Appomattox Middle (math 49% / reading 68%, grade B, #171 of 342 statewide, top 50%, 539 students, 74% FRL); Appomattox County High (math 77% / reading 87%, grade A, #40 of 319 statewide, top 15%, 699 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 41% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 95 units permitted in Appomattox County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Appomattox County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $160k implies a 154% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.1% in Madison Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.