10473 S Nogales Hwy

Summit, AZ 85756

$395,000B-

8 bd · 4.8 ba · 1,974 sqft · Built 1967 · MultiFamily · Pending · 292 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,513/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,071
• Tax + insurance: −$344
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,158
• Net cashflow: $1,940/mo
• Annual: $23,284/yr
• Cap rate: 12.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.05%
• DSCR: 1.94
• 1% rule: 1.40%
• Cash to close: $110,600

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 2-bed/1.2-bath units multifamily listed at $395k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive. Per door: $485/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $395k).
• It's been on market 292 days — a 12% lower offer ($348k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $348k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#254 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sunnyside Unified District (4407) (urban): math 9% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #233 of 249 in AZ (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Challenger Middle School (math 5% / reading 13%, grade F, #200 of 218 statewide, top 93%, 654 students, 82% FRL); Desert View High School (math 9% / reading 12%, grade F, #295 of 381 statewide, top 78%, 2,169 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 56% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 161 active listings in the ZIP; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 18 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.5% rent growth), your $111k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $5,513/mo this rent would consume 91% of the median local household income ($72k/yr) (locally 265% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 292 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?