3800 SW 20th Ave #101

Gainesville, FL 32607

$199,900D

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,225 sqft · Built 1996 · Condo · Pending · 69 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,153/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$400
• HOA: −$330
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $-77/mo
• Annual: $-930/yr
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.66%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath condo listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-77 ($-930/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (6.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $186k (6.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#97 in FL, #1,480 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Littlewood Elementary School (math 56% / reading 55%, grade C, #855 of 2,144 statewide, top 41%, 706 students, 48% FRL); Kanapaha Middle School (math 54% / reading 54%, grade B-, #196 of 571 statewide, top 36%, 1,094 students, 53% FRL); F. W. Buchholz High School (math 49% / reading 66%, grade C, #125 of 667 statewide, top 19%, 2,540 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 246 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $162k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,153/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 3418% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?