15 bd · 9.0 ba ·
2,200 sqft ·
Built 1963
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 73 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,573/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,229
Tax + insurance
−$708
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$960
Net cashflow
$676/mo
Annual
$8,107/yr
Cap rate
8.20%
Cash-on-cash
6.81%
DSCR
1.30
1% rule
1.08%
Cash to close
$119,000
Investor read
This is a 3 × 5-bed/3.0-bath units multifamily listed at $425k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $676 ($8k/yr) — positive. Per door: $225/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $425k).
It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($400k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $400k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime F.
Amphitheater Unified District (4406) (suburban): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #85 of 249 in AZ (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 177 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.7% in Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $4,573/mo this rent would consume 148% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 4240% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Moderate: kitchen cabinets
— dated and in need of replacement
Moderate: bathroom fixtures
— dated and in need of replacement
Major: landscaping
— overgrown yard needs trimming and planting
CashFlowRE · CFR-VA2C60AA0G0MP1
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29