Freeport II Plan

Ruskin, FL 33570

$310,990F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,498 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 286 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,363/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,788
• Tax + insurance: −$568
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$496
• Net cashflow: $-490/mo
• Annual: $-5,874/yr
• Cap rate: 4.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.15%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $95,476

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $311k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-490 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $270k (13.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (24.0% below list).
• It's been on market 286 days — a 12% lower offer ($274k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $236k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ruskin Elementary School (math 30% / reading 23%, grade F, #2,009 of 2,144 statewide, top 94%, 781 students, 77% FRL); Shields Middle School (math 29% / reading 27%, grade F, #486 of 571 statewide, top 86%, 1,867 students, 68% FRL); Lennard High School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 2,404 students, 47% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 770 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 31d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 286 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.