2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,351 sqft ·
Built 2000
· Condo
· Active
· 226 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,235/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,255
Tax + insurance
−$891
HOA
−$658
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$889
Net cashflow
$-458/mo
Annual
$-5,497/yr
Cap rate
6.20%
Cash-on-cash
-0.31%
DSCR
0.99
1% rule
0.98%
Cash to close
$120,400
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $430k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-458 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $349k (18.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $424k (1.5% below list).
It's been on market 226 days — a 12% lower offer ($378k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $349k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Lely High School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #304 of 667 statewide, top 47%, 1,504 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 58% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Collier average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 900 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
8 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 15536% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $4,235/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($89k/yr) (locally 550% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 226 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
CashFlowRE · CFR-VBY9P89AQRBP0V
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29