1745 N Winery Ave #144

Fresno, CA 93703

$154,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 968 sqft · Built 1990 · Condo · Active · 101 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,519/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$808
• Tax + insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$350
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $-69/mo
• Annual: $-829/yr
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.92%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $43,120

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $154k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-69 ($-829/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $142k (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (1.4% below list).
• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $140k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#469 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Fresno Unified (urban): math 18% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #327 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ericson Elementary (767 students, 97% FRL); Scandinavian Middle (764 students, 95% FRL); Mclane High (math 10% / reading 31%, grade F, #958 of 1,170 statewide, top 82%, 1,945 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 77% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 32% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fresno Unified average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.8%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $154k implies a 374% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.7% in Fresno — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?