2106 Northway Rd

Kenmar, PA 17701

$395,000B

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 5,561 sqft · Built 1900 · MultiFamily · Active · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,490/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,071
• Tax + insurance: −$487
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,573
• Net cashflow: $3,359/mo
• Annual: $40,306/yr
• Cap rate: 16.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.44%
• DSCR: 2.62
• 1% rule: 1.90%
• Cash to close: $110,600

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $395k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($40k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $395k).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($389k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $389k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#575 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Loyalsock Township SD (suburban): math 47% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #152 of 539 in PA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 188 active listings in the ZIP; 73 units permitted in Lycoming County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lycoming County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 10 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.4% rent growth), your $111k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• At $7,490/mo this rent would consume 169% of the median local household income ($53k/yr) (locally 2178% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.