2921 Canyon Glen Way

Dacula, GA 30019

$454,900D-

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,990 sqft · Built 2015 · SingleFamily · Active · 96 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,483/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,386
• Tax + insurance: −$827
• HOA: −$58
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$731
• Net cashflow: $-519/mo
• Annual: $-6,233/yr
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.89%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $127,372

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $455k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-519 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $363k (20.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $348k (23.4% below list).
• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($414k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $348k (23.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#211 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Gwinnett County (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #32 of 174 in GA (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 643 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 5,607 units permitted in Gwinnett County in 2024 (1,277 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gwinnett County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 10 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 4.1% in Dacula — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($117k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.