3 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,482 sqft ·
Built 2022
· Townhouse
· Pending
· 66 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,340/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,415
Tax + insurance
−$450
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$491
Net cashflow
$-17/mo
Annual
$-199/yr
Cap rate
6.22%
Cash-on-cash
-0.26%
DSCR
0.99
1% rule
0.87%
Cash to close
$75,572
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $270k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-17 ($-199/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $268k (0.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (13.3% below list).
It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $234k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 79/100 on livability (#130 in NY, #2,089 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
West Seneca Central School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #336 of 590 in NY (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.7% in West Seneca — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-VDAK627NPS3NPT
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29