18089 19 Mile Rd

Tustin, MI 49688

$219,900D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 2024 · SingleFamily · Active · 47 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,192/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax + insurance: −$366
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $-578/mo
• Annual: $-6,938/yr
• Cap rate: 3.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.27%
• DSCR: 0.50
• 1% rule: 0.54%
• Cash to close: $61,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-578 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $136k (38.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (45.8% below list).
• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $119k (45.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#540 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pine River Area Schools (rural): math 22% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #369 of 540 in MI (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pine River Area Elementary School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #328 of 1,397 statewide, top 26%, 295 students, 70% FRL); Pine River Area Middle School (math 18% / reading 31%, grade F, #388 of 493 statewide, top 80%, 262 students, 63% FRL); Pine River Area High School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #441 of 713 statewide, top 64%, 417 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Osceola County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.