632 W 12th St

Florence, AZ 85132

$252,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,237 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,895/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,322
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $-33/mo
• Annual: $-392/yr
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.56%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $70,560

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $252k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-33 ($-392/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (2.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (24.8% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $189k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#187 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Florence K-8 (math 17% / reading 23%, grade F, #742 of 1,109 statewide, top 67%, 771 students, 56% FRL); Florence High School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 796 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 737 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $252k implies a 572% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.1% in Florence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.