9509 Bankston Rd

Dora, AL 35062

$235,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,272 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Active · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,404/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax + insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $-310/mo
• Annual: $-3,722/yr
• Cap rate: 4.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.66%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $65,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-310 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (23.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (40.3% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $140k (40.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#374 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Corner Middle School (math 13% / reading 56%, grade F, #90 of 257 statewide, top 38%, 439 students, 53% FRL); Corner High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #90 of 305 statewide, top 35%, 504 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $164k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.