12500 Sandpiper Dr #84

Houston, TX 77035

$87,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Built 1983 · Condo · Active · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,116/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$456
• Tax + insurance: −$157
• HOA: −$550
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $-282/mo
• Annual: $-3,378/yr
• Cap rate: 2.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.87%
• DSCR: 0.38
• 1% rule: 1.28%
• Cash to close: $24,360

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $87k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-282 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $87k).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $84k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $601 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Fondren Middle (math 13% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,536 of 1,662 statewide, top 93%, 840 students, 99% FRL); Westbury H S (math 19% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,250 of 1,632 statewide, top 77%, 2,243 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 71% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 49% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 199 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?