240 Rolling Hills Pl

Lancaster, TX 75146

$195,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 1973 · Townhouse · Active · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,154/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax + insurance: −$366
• HOA: −$40
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $273/mo
• Annual: $3,271/yr
• Cap rate: 7.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.99%
• DSCR: 1.27
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $54,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $273 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $189k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#926 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Lancaster ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #714 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Rolling Hills El (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 434 students, 89% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 103 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.8% in Lancaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.