1510 Crockett St Unit B

Houston, TX 77007

$398,500D

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,912 sqft · Built 2008 · Townhouse · Active · 74 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,621/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,090
• Tax + insurance: −$828
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$760
• Net cashflow: $-57/mo
• Annual: $-688/yr
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.62%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $111,580

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $398k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-688/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $388k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $362k (9.1% below list).
• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($375k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $362k (9.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Crockett El (math 22% / reading 39%, grade F, #2,464 of 4,322 statewide, top 58%, 554 students, 63% FRL); Hogg Middle (math 44% / reading 48%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,120 students, 52% FRL); Heights H S (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 2,476 students, 65% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 651 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask is 14132% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.