19 Mine Hill Rd

Topstone, CT 06896

$1,195,000C+

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,629 sqft · Built 1983 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $17,329/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,267
• Tax + insurance: −$1,779
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,639
• Net cashflow: $5,644/mo
• Annual: $67,729/yr
• Cap rate: 11.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.24%
• DSCR: 1.90
• 1% rule: 1.45%
• Cash to close: $334,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $1.20M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($68k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($17k rent vs $1.20M).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.18M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.18M (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $36k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Regional School District 09 (rural): math 75% / reading 90% proficiency, ranked #7 of 192 in CT (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Joel Barlow High School (math 57% / reading 82%, grade B, #18 of 194 statewide, top 10%, 768 students, 12% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 70% at this address vs 82% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Regional School District 09 average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,151 units permitted in Western Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (714 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 8 sale attempts since 33y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $665k; list at $1.20M implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $335k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.