825 Grove St

Deer Park, TX 77536

$199,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,215 sqft · Built 1952 · SingleFamily · Pending · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,870/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$437
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $-3/mo
• Annual: $-38/yr
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.07%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3 ($-38/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (6.0% below list).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $187k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#244 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Deer Park ISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #170 of 826 in TX (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: San Jacinto El (math 40% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,269 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 801 students, 52% FRL); Deer Park J H (math 60% / reading 55%, grade B, #206 of 1,662 statewide, top 13%, 863 students, 40% FRL); Deer Park H S (math 57% / reading 59%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 4,026 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 170 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.7% in Deer Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.