7241 Macedonia Rd

Fredericksburg, VA 22580

$99,000A-

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Built 1942 · SingleFamily · Pending · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,402/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax + insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $1,285/mo
• Annual: $15,422/yr
• Cap rate: 21.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.64%
• DSCR: 3.48
• 1% rule: 2.43%
• Cash to close: $27,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $96k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#299 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, employment A-, housing B+; Watch: crime F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Caroline County Public School District (rural): math 39% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #95 of 131 in VA (top 72%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Madison Elementary (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #827 of 1,108 statewide, top 77%, 466 students, 76% FRL); Caroline Middle (math 36% / reading 67%, grade C, #222 of 342 statewide, top 65%, 973 students, 75% FRL); Caroline High (math 46% / reading 76%, grade C+, #242 of 319 statewide, top 76%, 1,251 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 44% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 318 units permitted in Caroline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Caroline County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 20% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 21.9% vs local median 3.7% in Fredericksburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.