5456 E Lake Rd

Chautauqua, NY 14728

$109,900C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,760 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,064/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax + insurance: −$151
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $113/mo
• Annual: $1,358/yr
• Cap rate: 7.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.41%
• DSCR: 1.20
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $30,772

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $113 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $106k (3.2% below list).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $106k (3.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($760 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,029 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities C-, commute C-, employment F.
• Chautauqua Lake Central School District (rural): math 65% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #218 of 590 in NY (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chautauqua Lake Elementary School (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #842 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 338 students, 50% FRL); Chautauqua Lake Secondary School (math 72% / reading 67%, grade B, #715 of 1,100 statewide, top 67%, 379 students, 48% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $59k; list at $110k implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 0.2% in Chautauqua — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: exterior siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major: paint — Peeling paint on exterior and interior
• Major: roof — Aged appearance, likely in need of replacement