4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,585 sqft ·
Built 1977
· Condo
· Active
· 152 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,783/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,468
Tax + insurance
−$467
HOA
−$406
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$585
Net cashflow
$-142/mo
Annual
$-1,705/yr
Cap rate
5.68%
Cash-on-cash
-2.17%
DSCR
0.90
1% rule
0.99%
Cash to close
$78,400
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $280k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-142 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (7.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $278k (0.6% below list).
It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $246k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 82/100 on livability (#60 in FL, #988 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-.
Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Leila Davis Elementary School (math 66% / reading 69%, grade B+, #435 of 2,144 statewide, top 21%, 665 students, 35% FRL); Safety Harbor Middle School (math 45% / reading 43%, grade D, #327 of 571 statewide, top 57%, 974 students, 50% FRL); Countryside High School (math 25% / reading 45%, grade F, #379 of 667 statewide, top 58%, 1,741 students, 44% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents flat; 205 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
8 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $163k; list at $280k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.9% in Clearwater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
CashFlowRE · CFR-VHQ3SPDJN1R8K9
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29