3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,825 sqft ·
Built 2017
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 73 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,340/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,757
Tax + insurance
−$359
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$491
Net cashflow
$-267/mo
Annual
$-3,210/yr
Cap rate
5.33%
Cash-on-cash
-3.42%
DSCR
0.85
1% rule
0.70%
Cash to close
$93,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $335k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-267 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (14.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (30.2% below list).
It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $234k (30.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 71/100 on livability (#17 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
Rio Rancho Public Schools (suburban): math 48% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #4 of 29 in NM (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Vista Grande Elementary (768 students, 10% FRL); Mountain View Middle (937 students, 14% FRL); Cleveland High School (math 46% / reading 70%, grade C, #32 of 110 statewide, top 28%, 2,631 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools average 14% FRL vs 36% district-wide (22 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.9%/yr); 1325 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,278 units permitted in Sandoval County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
Sandoval County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.6% in Rio Rancho — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
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