4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,111 sqft ·
Built 2026
· Land
· Active
· 105 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,479/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,967
Tax + insurance
−$625
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$521
Net cashflow
$-633/mo
Annual
$-7,594/yr
Cap rate
4.27%
Cash-on-cash
-7.23%
DSCR
0.68
1% rule
0.66%
Cash to close
$105,000
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $375k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-633 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (24.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (33.9% below list).
It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($341k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $248k (33.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#252 in FL, #3,975 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 837 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
5 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $12k; list at $375k implies a 3161% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-VJDKAM2W0BBFTC
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29