3 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,950 sqft ·
Built 1900
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 20 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,675/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$784
Tax + insurance
−$364
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$352
Net cashflow
$176/mo
Annual
$2,107/yr
Cap rate
8.15%
Cash-on-cash
6.62%
DSCR
1.29
1% rule
1.12%
Cash to close
$41,860
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $150k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $176 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $147k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 78/100 on livability (#177 in NY, #2,760 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D+, employment D.
Geneva City School District (town): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #528 of 590 in NY (top 90%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 284 units permitted in Ontario County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).
Ontario County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
6 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $50k; list at $150k implies a 199% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 5.0% in Geneva — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
CashFlowRE · CFR-VK3Z0F57PVHN8H
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29