154 Rosebud St

Anderson Creek, NC 28390

$167,000D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,025 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Pending · 123 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,400/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$876
• Tax + insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $85/mo
• Annual: $1,023/yr
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.19%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $46,760

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $167k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $85 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (16.1% below list).
• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $140k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Harnett County Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #130 of 178 in NC (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Overhills Elementary (math 31% / reading 35%, grade F, #890 of 1,410 statewide, top 64%, 930 students, 53% FRL); Overhills Middle (math 29% / reading 40%, grade F, #292 of 475 statewide, top 62%, 799 students, 61% FRL); Overhills High (math 52% / reading 63%, grade C, #245 of 535 statewide, top 46%, 1,971 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 351 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,080 units permitted in Harnett County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harnett County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 74% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.5% in Anderson Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.