432 Fairview Ave

Warwick, RI 02816

$619,900C

5 bd · 5.0 ba · 2,872 sqft · Built 1880 · MultiFamily · Pending · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,322/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,251
• Tax + insurance: −$762
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,538
• Net cashflow: $1,772/mo
• Annual: $21,260/yr
• Cap rate: 9.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.25%
• DSCR: 1.54
• 1% rule: 1.18%
• Cash to close: $173,572

Investor read

• This is a 2×5bd/1.5ba + 1×3bd/1ba units multifamily listed at $620k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($21k/yr) — positive. Per door: $591/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $620k).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($611k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $611k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#6 in RI, #2,425 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F.
• Coventry (suburban): math 25% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #19 of 39 in RI (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 177 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 471 units permitted in Kent County in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kent County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $400k; list at $620k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $174k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 3.8% in Warwick — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $7,322/mo this rent would consume 87% of the median local household income ($101k/yr) (locally 667% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.