2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
809 sqft ·
Built 2001
· Condo
· Active
· 210 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,360/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,780
Tax + insurance
−$565
HOA
−$420
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$706
Net cashflow
$-111/mo
Annual
$-1,333/yr
Cap rate
6.14%
Cash-on-cash
-0.56%
DSCR
0.97
1% rule
0.99%
Cash to close
$95,060
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $340k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-111 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $320k (5.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $336k (1.0% below list).
It's been on market 210 days — a 12% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $299k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 61/100 on livability (#783 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing B; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D, amenities F.
St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.0%/yr); 536 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
5 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $134k; list at $340k implies a 152% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 1.9% in Hutchinson Island South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $3,360/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 946% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 210 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
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· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29