5402 Jonathan Ln

Houston, TX 77011

$315,000D

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,019 sqft · Built 2014 · Townhouse · Active · 126 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,052/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax + insurance: −$739
• HOA: −$150
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $-920/mo
• Annual: $-11,035/yr
• Cap rate: 2.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.51%
• DSCR: 0.44
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $88,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath townhouse listed at $315k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-920 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $153k (51.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (34.9% below list).
• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $153k (51.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Burnet El (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 407 students, 91% FRL); Navarro Middle (math 8% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,639 of 1,662 statewide, top 99%, 547 students, 98% FRL); Austin H S (math 9% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,530 of 1,632 statewide, top 94%, 1,448 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 161 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 10 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,052/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 655% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 52% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?