229 SW Barwick Ter

Lake City, FL 32024

$249,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 1999 · Manufactured · Active · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,876/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax + insurance: −$207
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $-31/mo
• Annual: $-376/yr
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.54%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $69,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $249k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-376/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (24.7% below list).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $188k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#304 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, employment F.
• Columbia (town): math 53% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #25 of 73 in FL (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 206 active listings in the ZIP; 178 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Columbia County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $172k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.7% in Lake City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.