1615 W Grace St

Richmond, VA 23220

$899,000F

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,687 sqft · Built 1904 · MultiFamily · Pending · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,307/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,714
• Tax + insurance: −$928
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,114
• Net cashflow: $-1,450/mo
• Annual: $-17,394/yr
• Cap rate: 4.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.91%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.59%
• Cash to close: $251,720

Investor read

• This is a 2×2bd/1.5ba + 1×1bd/1.5ba units multifamily listed at $899k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-483/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $643k (28.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $531k (41.0% below list).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($872k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $531k (41.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $27k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#33 in VA, #793 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D-.
• Richmond City Public School District (urban): math 32% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #123 of 131 in VA (top 94%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: William Fox Elementary (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,082 of 1,108 statewide, top 98%, 326 students, 99% FRL); Binford Middle (math 37% / reading 47%, grade D-, #295 of 342 statewide, top 87%, 452 students, 99% FRL); Thomas Jefferson High (math 62% / reading 87%, grade B+, #107 of 319 statewide, top 37%, 816 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 74% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1904 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 176 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,540 units permitted in Richmond city in 2024 (2,077 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Richmond County population projected at +40% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $590k; list at $899k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.2% in Richmond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,307/mo this rent would consume 104% of the median local household income ($61k/yr) (locally 2962% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1904 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?