18 Collins Ter

Melville, RI 02835

$2,750,000F

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,057 sqft · Built 1971 · SingleFamily · Pending · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,739/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$14,421
• Tax + insurance: −$1,860
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$995
• Net cashflow: $-12,537/mo
• Annual: $-150,443/yr
• Cap rate: 0.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -19.54%
• DSCR: 0.13
• 1% rule: 0.17%
• Cash to close: $770,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $2.75M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13k ($-150k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $535k (80.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $474k (82.8% below list).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($2.71M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $474k (82.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $19k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $82k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#30 in RI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, crime A, schools A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Jamestown (suburban): math 51% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #2 of 39 in RI (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 94 units permitted in Newport County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Newport County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $742k; list at $2.75M implies a 270% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.