31210 Libra Dr

Piñon Hills, CA 93544

$184,000C

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 650 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Active · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,814/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$965
• Tax + insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $301/mo
• Annual: $3,617/yr
• Cap rate: 8.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.02%
• DSCR: 1.31
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $51,520

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $184k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $301 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (1.4% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $181k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $475 appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Keppel Union Elementary (rural): math 23% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,089 of 1,400 in CA (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 128 active listings in the ZIP; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $5k; list at $184k implies a 3580% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (0.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.8% in Piñon Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.