3419 Ginger Dr

Hopkinsville, KY 42240

$108,000B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · Built 1969 · SingleFamily · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,430/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$566
• Tax + insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $419/mo
• Annual: $5,029/yr
• Cap rate: 10.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.63%
• DSCR: 1.74
• 1% rule: 1.32%
• Cash to close: $30,240

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $108k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $419 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $108k).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $747 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#305 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Christian County (town): math 30% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #93 of 165 in KY (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Millbrooke Elementary School (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #208 of 676 statewide, top 34%, 692 students, 61% FRL); Hopkinsville Middle School (math 32% / reading 36%, grade F, #103 of 217 statewide, top 48%, 549 students, 67% FRL); Hopkinsville High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 962 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 256 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 193 units permitted in Christian County in 2024 (66 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Christian County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 4.3% in Hopkinsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.