11243 Tallow Creek Dr

Walker, LA 70726

$208,814D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,225 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,816/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,095
• Tax + insurance: −$348
• HOA: −$28
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $-36/mo
• Annual: $-438/yr
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.75%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $58,468

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $209k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-36 ($-438/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (13.0% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $182k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#19 in LA, #3,999 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities D-, commute F.
• Livingston Parish (suburban): math 40% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 98 in LA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 985 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 794 units permitted in Livingston Parish in 2024 (99 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Livingston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.8% in Walker — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.