5 bd · 3.0 ba ·
3,118 sqft ·
Built 1973
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 36 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,595/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,568
Tax + insurance
−$363
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$755
Net cashflow
$909/mo
Annual
$10,906/yr
Cap rate
9.94%
Cash-on-cash
13.03%
DSCR
1.58
1% rule
1.20%
Cash to close
$83,720
Investor read
This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $909 ($11k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $299k).
It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $290k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 65/100 on livability (#220 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
Peach County (rural): math 17% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #141 of 174 in GA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Hunt Elementary School (math 11% / reading 11%, grade F, #1,071 of 1,228 statewide, top 88%, 640 students, 82% FRL); Fort Valley Middle School (math 11% / reading 19%, grade F, #397 of 470 statewide, top 85%, 481 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 65% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 149 units permitted in Peach County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Peach County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $118k; list at $299k implies a 154% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 5.7% in Fort Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-VPB7SPBX3C3D09
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29