3923 Pennsylvania Ave SE #201

Washington, DC 20020

$160,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 636 sqft · Built 1940 · Condo · Active · 136 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,832/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$267
• HOA: −$417
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $-76/mo
• Annual: $-908/yr
• Cap rate: 5.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.03%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $44,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-76 ($-908/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (6.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#1 in DC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• District Of Columbia Public Schools (urban): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #8 of 32 in DC (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 296 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,737 units permitted in District of Columbia in 2024 (1,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• District of Columbia County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 10 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $44k; list at $160k implies a 268% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.5% in Washington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?