6524 Lowry

Lake of the Woods, CA 93225

$385,000F

1 bd · 2.4 ba · 676 sqft · Built 1960 · MultiFamily · Active · 245 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,628/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,019
• Tax + insurance: −$396
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$552
• Net cashflow: $-339/mo
• Annual: $-4,072/yr
• Cap rate: 5.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.78%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $107,800

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $385k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-339 ($-4k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-170/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $325k (15.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (31.7% below list).
• It's been on market 245 days — a 12% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $263k (31.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#1,303 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• El Tejon Unified (rural): math 13% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #361 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Frazier Park Elementary (244 students, 76% FRL); El Tejon Elementary (math 12% / reading 42%, grade F, #242 of 498 statewide, top 50%, 189 students, 87% FRL); Frazier Mountain High (math 15% / reading 64%, grade F, #520 of 1,170 statewide, top 45%, 253 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 52% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $385k implies a 141% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.5% in Lake of the Woods — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 245 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?