1216 30th Dr

New York, NY 11102

$1,159,900B+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,512 sqft · Built 1901 · MultiFamily · Pending · 133 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $12,593/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,083
• Tax + insurance: −$1,079
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,645
• Net cashflow: $2,787/mo
• Annual: $33,440/yr
• Cap rate: 9.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.30%
• DSCR: 1.46
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $324,772

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $1.16M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($33k/yr) — positive. Per door: $1k/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($13k rent vs $1.16M).
• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.02M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.02M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($8k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Watch-outs: built in 1901 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 114 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $65k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 4.8% rent growth), your $325k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$67k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $12,593/mo this rent would consume 156% of the median local household income ($97k/yr) (locally 2407% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1901 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?