2320 Bigelow Ln

Efland, NC 27243

$114,900B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Built 2003 · Manufactured · Pending · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,827/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$134
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $706/mo
• Annual: $8,475/yr
• Cap rate: 13.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.34%
• DSCR: 2.17
• 1% rule: 1.59%
• Cash to close: $32,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $706 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#380 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Orange County Schools (rural): math 35% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #108 of 178 in NC (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Gravelly Hill Middle (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #343 of 475 statewide, top 73%, 425 students, 54% FRL); Orange High (math 63% / reading 58%, grade C+, #210 of 535 statewide, top 40%, 1,341 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 375 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (34 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.