407 Swanson Cres #407

Milford city (balance), CT 06461

$279,900D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 931 sqft · Built 1978 · Condo · Under Contract · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,838/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$466
• HOA: −$366
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$596
• Net cashflow: $-58/mo
• Annual: $-699/yr
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.89%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $78,372

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-58 ($-699/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (3.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $280k).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $271k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Milford School District (urban): math 44% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #73 of 153 in CT (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Orange Avenue School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #237 of 553 statewide, top 45%, 404 students, 23% FRL); Harborside Middle School (math 51% / reading 65%, grade B, #55 of 175 statewide, top 32%, 403 students, 23% FRL); Joseph A. Foran High School (math 47% / reading 67%, grade C, #52 of 194 statewide, top 31%, 765 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,059 units permitted in South Central Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (779 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.6% in Milford city (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.