Orion Plan

Dade City, FL 33523

$316,837D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,712 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 359 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,115/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,679
• Tax + insurance: −$534
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $-542/mo
• Annual: $-6,504/yr
• Cap rate: 4.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.26%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $89,640

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $317k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-542 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (23.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (33.3% below list).
• It's been on market 359 days — a 12% lower offer ($279k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $211k (33.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#307 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 295 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$55k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 359 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.