2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
780 sqft ·
Built 1937
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 2 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$978/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$655
Tax + insurance
−$102
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$205
Net cashflow
$15/mo
Annual
$183/yr
Cap rate
6.44%
Cash-on-cash
0.52%
DSCR
1.02
1% rule
0.78%
Cash to close
$34,972
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $15 ($183/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (21.7% below list).
Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $98k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#416 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, commute F, employment D-.
Evansville Vanderburgh School Corporation (urban): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #153 of 301 in IN (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Evans School (math 9% / reading 7%, grade F, #945 of 994 statewide, top 95%, 499 students, 85% FRL); North Junior High School (math 44% / reading 57%, grade C, #43 of 330 statewide, top 14%, 929 students, 42% FRL); North High School (math 57% / reading 74%, grade B, #29 of 369 statewide, top 8%, 1,674 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
Watch-outs: built in 1937 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.7%/yr); 229 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 508 units permitted in Vanderburgh County in 2024 (32 in 5+ unit buildings).
5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $96k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.6% in Evansville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1937 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
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