224 Bible Grove Rd

Chesterfield, TN 38351

$92,900B-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,276 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Pending · 275 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,326/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$487
• Tax + insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $436/mo
• Annual: $5,236/yr
• Cap rate: 11.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.13%
• DSCR: 1.90
• 1% rule: 1.43%
• Cash to close: $26,012

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $93k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $436 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $93k).
• It's been on market 275 days — a 12% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $82k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $642 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#170 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, schools F.
• Henderson County (rural): math 32% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #41 of 139 in TN (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 158 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Henderson County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $77k (45%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 275 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.