10074 E Bay Harbor Dr Unit 74C

Bay Harbor Islands, FL 33154

$300,000C+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 480 sqft · Built 1950 · Condo · Active · 545 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,511/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$907
• HOA: −$365
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$737
• Net cashflow: $-72/mo
• Annual: $-861/yr
• Cap rate: 7.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.07%
• DSCR: 1.23
• 1% rule: 1.17%
• Cash to close: $84,000

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-72 ($-861/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $287k (4.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $300k).
• It's been on market 545 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $264k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#13 in FL, #362 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 522 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 12 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask is 14900% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• At projected returns (6.1% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $3,511/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($90k/yr) (locally 774% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 545 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.