811 Walton Ave Unit F19

New York, NY 10451

$277,000D-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Built 1927 · Condo · Pending · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,151/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,453
• Tax + insurance: −$462
• HOA: −$1,154
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$662
• Net cashflow: $-579/mo
• Annual: $-6,945/yr
• Cap rate: 3.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.95%
• DSCR: 0.60
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $77,560

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $277k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-579 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $277k).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($269k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $269k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 37% of rent; built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 69 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 6,929 units permitted in Bronx County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bronx County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,151/mo this rent would consume 98% of the median local household income ($39k/yr) (locally 6917% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?