4111 Seabury Dr

Wichita Falls, TX 76308

$223,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,028 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Active · 203 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,867/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,169
• Tax + insurance: −$517
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $-211/mo
• Annual: $-2,530/yr
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.05%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $62,440

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $223k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-211 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (16.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (16.3% below list).
• It's been on market 203 days — a 12% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $186k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#437 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools D.
• Wichita Falls ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #585 of 826 in TX (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 130 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 231 units permitted in Wichita County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wichita County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 203 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.