1612 Russian Jack Dr Unit D1

Anchorage, AK 99508

$149,900D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 756 sqft · Built 1982 · Condo · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,563/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax + insurance: −$245
• HOA: −$320
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $-117/mo
• Annual: $-1,400/yr
• Cap rate: 5.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.34%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $41,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-117 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (13.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $129k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#6 in AK, #2,553 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Anchorage School District (urban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #6 of 21 in AK (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Russian Jack Elementary (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #139 of 156 statewide, top 92%, 252 students, 87% FRL); Clark Middle School (math 7% / reading 22%, grade F, #35 of 36 statewide, top 97%, 835 students, 100% FRL); Bettye Davis East Anchorage High School (math 20% / reading 25%, grade F, #51 of 61 statewide, top 83%, 1,745 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 38% district-wide (48 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 18% at this address vs 40% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Anchorage School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 149 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 306 units permitted in Anchorage Municipality in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Anchorage County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.8% in Anchorage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.