3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,367 sqft ·
Built 1978
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 129 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,189/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$747
Tax + insurance
−$267
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$250
Net cashflow
$-76/mo
Annual
$-906/yr
Cap rate
6.22%
Cash-on-cash
-0.27%
DSCR
0.99
1% rule
0.83%
Cash to close
$39,900
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $142k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-76 ($-906/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (9.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (16.6% below list).
It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $119k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $985 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#199 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
St. Mary Parish (town): math 28% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #37 of 98 in LA (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Berwick Elementary School (math 48% / reading 57%, grade C-, #105 of 646 statewide, top 16%, 484 students, 56% FRL); Berwick Junior High School (math 37% / reading 53%, grade D, #46 of 218 statewide, top 22%, 388 students, 54% FRL); Berwick High School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #45 of 265 statewide, top 20%, 514 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 68% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 48% at this address vs 34% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the St. Mary Parish average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 37 units permitted in St. Mary Parish in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
St. Mary County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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